Hostilities Resume

Ceasefire Breakdown, Israeli War Aims, and Palestinian Prisoners

Quick Hits

• After Hamas violated the terms of the Ceasefire by refusing to release the remaining women they are holding in captivity and launching a barrage of rockets into Israel - Israel resumed the military operation over the past week, pushing from northern Gaza into the south.

• US State Department explains that one of the reasons Hamas broke the ceasefire was that they did not want the women to tell the world “What happened to them” in captivity.

• This week, the United Nations women's advocacy group, after over seven weeks, in the face of overwhelming evidence, finally condemned the rape and mutilation of women committed by Hamas on October 7th.

• Israeli doctors are reporting that several of the women were sexually assaulted in Hamas captivity

• The United States is putting pressure on the IDF to be “more surgical” in their approach in Southern Gaza, particularly due to the number of refugees who have moved south from Gaza City throughout the opening stages of the war. The White House did not set a date when it will pressure Israel to end the conflict at this time - something that has happened in just about every previous conflict.

• Photos circulated of a few dozen Hamas fighters - photographed in their underwear awaiting transfer to Israeli prisons. This sparked some outrage online - suggesting that the Israelis were humiliating Hamas prisoners. In fact, it is standard practice to make Hamas terrorists strip their outer clothing off to check for suicide vests - which are common for Hamas terrorists.

• Extremist Israeli Settlers wrecked an EU-funded school in the West Bank, leading to outrage from Palestinians and Israeli activist groups calling on their government to prevent the destruction of Palestinian property.

• The Presidents of Harvard, Penn, and MIT all testified before the House of Representatives on Wednesday, asked to account for their failure to prevent harassment of their Jewish students over the previous weeks. Several viral moments ensued, most notably this exchange between representative Elise Stefanik and the University of Pennsylvania President, Elizabeth Magill, where Magill explained that calls for the genocide of Jews did not violate the university’s code of conduct. Each president appealed to the First Amendment protections of freedom of speech - ironic as Harvard and The University of Pennsylvania ranked dead last on The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression's (FIRE) yearly campus rankings.

A Closer Look

Ceasefire Breakdown, Israeli War Aims, and Palestinian Prisoners

Ceasefire Breakdown

I mentioned last Friday that I would give a more substantive look at the Ceasefire and breakdown when more information came out, and we could get a bit of perspective of what it meant, why it happened, and what it means for the longer term future of the conflict, our closer look section today will begin with that report.

Between November 24th and December 1st Hamas freed 110 hostages, 80 Israelis and 30 foriegns nationals. In exchange, Israel has released 240 Palestinian prisoners, all women or teenagers. The exchange broke down when Hamas refused to release the ten women scheduled for release on December 1st. The US government is reporting that Hamas is refused to release the next wave of Israeli women to prevent them from “sharing what happened to them”.

A quick scan through the names, ages, and photos of the remaining hostages shows a gut wrenching fact: Hamas kept the women between the ages of 18-32. They refused to give them back becasue they have almost certainly been repeatedly raped by their captors. God help me, I pray that I am wrong about this, but considering the widespread evidence and confirmation of sexual violence committed by Hamas on October 7th, testimony from captured Hamas terrorists in the intervening days, and statments made by Israeli doctors that released hostages had witnessed and been sexually assaulted in captivity, I do not think I am. I fear these beautiful innocent souls are being subjected to the worst of evils by their bloodthirsty and perverted captors.

Understanding this horrifying reality is central to understanding the Israeli resolve to continue fighting the war. Calls for a permanent ceasefire will do nothing to impact the Israeli resolve to remove Hamas from power and dismantle their capacity to wage war. The IDF will continue to attempt to limit civilian casualties, perhaps more so under United States pressure, but there is absolutely zero chance of and Israeli government ending the war with Hamas’s military leadership and infrastructure intact. The United States could halt all funding to Israel or even sever its relationship with the State of Israel and the IDF would continue the fight until its war aims are, to some degree, accomplished.

Israeli War Aims

The Israeli War aims are as follows:

1. Remove Hamas from power and destroy their capacity to wage war

2. Rescue the Hostages taken from Hamas on October 7th

The temporary ceasefire was in service of one of the war aims as it managed to free 110 hostages for relatively minimal cost. Now that Hamas has broken the ceasefire Israel will pursue their other primary objective of removing Hamas from power and destroying their capacity to wage war. As the IDF encircles the remaining underground military instilations in the Gaza strip the physical risk to the remaining hostages grows, as does, perhaps counterintuitivly their possibility for freedom. 62 days into the war the IDF has lost 92 soldiers - while Hamas is estimated to have lost between 3000-5000 fighters. The IDF is currently facing intense fighting but, thus far, they seem fully capable of dismantaling the tunnel network and dealing massive damage to Hamas fighting forces. As the noose closes in around Yayha Sinwar and other Hamas leaders, the hostages may end up being the bargaining chip they are able to play to save their lives. This seems to be the strategic calculus being made by the Israeli war cabinet at the moment although a few key variables will determine its efficacy:

1. Time

   1. Each passing day the situation for the hostages grows more dire. The Red Cross has not been permitted access to the hostages even to give perscription medicine to those with medical conditions. The hostages released all had lost weight, if this drags on for months there could be very severe medical conditions faced by the hostages.

   2. Essentially every Israeli military operation is on a clock held by the United States. As the days roll on and the Gazan civillian death toll mounts it is quite possible that the Biden administration will begin to pressure the Israeli’s to bring the conflict to a close. Thus far, the Biden administration has specifically said that they are not putting the IDF on a clock, but how long that holds remains to be seen. Israel could potentially continue the operation without US support, but it would be quite difficult to maintain in perpetuity, especially with the menace of Iran looming over the horizon. Israel can defeat Hamas on its own, but if Hezbollah and Iran joined the fray, US support would likely be essential to Israeli defense.

2. Gazan Civillian Casualties

   1. As stated above, it is the opinion of the US state department that the IDF was less careful in the opening of their incursion into Gaza than they have been in previous operations. The US maintains that the IDF has not violated the international laws of armed conflict, but they are signaling strongly that the operation in the south needs to be much more precise given that the population density in southern Gaza is greater than that of the north. In order to execute a more precise operation, the advance will be much slower than we saw up north and much more dangerous to IDF ground forces.

3. Hamas Leadership’s Instincts for Self Preservation

   1. It is clear that Hamas has no regard for Gazan life but rather sees Gazans deaths as part of their weaponry to be used against the state of Israel. What remains to be seen is how committed Sinwar and other top leadership are willing to die for the war they started. Asking Israel for some sort of pause or ceasefire in exchange for the leaderships relocation to Qatar or Turkey and the remaining hostages requires a Hamas leadership that wants to live, and live with the shame of fleeing for their lives. In my opinion this is probably the weakest link of the Israeli theory. It seems to me that “martyrdom” is preferable to life for Islamists and thus the death of Hamas will likely mean the death of the remaining hostages. From what I have read and heard from Israeli commentators most know this but few wish to discuss it openly.

4. Internal Pressure from Israeli society

   1. Prime Minister Benjamin Netynahu’s political career is finished when this war is done. While Israel is very unlikely to remove him in the middle of the war, his political career and perhaps his legacy will end in infamy. His government was the cause of the most contentious period of Israeli civil division in its pursuit of judicial reform leading up to October 7th and his government presided over the worst military failure in Israeli history. Confidence in Netynahu is at an all time low. As I mentioned in a previous article, the redemption of hostages is massively important to the people of Israel - it would be unprecidented durring a time of war but not unimaginable that outrage over the continued hostage crisis could lead to a failure of Bibi’s government.

Palestinian Prisoners

A bit of a nonsequitor, but I wanted to close write a quick note on the Palestinian prisoners who were exchanged for the Israeli hostages. I spent a good bit of time last week deliberating on what language to use to describe who these people were and what landed them in Israeli jails. All of the 240 Palestinians released were women and teenagers who were arrested by the IDF in the West Bank for crimes related to terrorism of some sort. Some, like the woman with the disfigured face who went viral last week, attempted terrorist attacks like car bombings. Others stabbed either IDF personnel or Israeli civilians and some were imprisoned for throwing Molotov cocktails or stones at IDF personnel at checkpoints or in street corners in places like the Old City of Jerusalem.

Now, here’s the tricky part, there were some who were tried and convicted in an Israeli military court. Others, were being detained while awaiting trial. So, it would not be true to call them all “Convicted Terrorists” though many of them were - it also must be noted that these Palestinians were not convicted by a jury of their peers but rather an occupying military force. This is one of the consistent complaints from Palestinians in the west bank - that their civil rights are curtailed or non existant when dealing with the IDF¹. The Oslo Peace process tried to offer some remedy for this by allowing civil governance administrated by the Palestinian Authority, but when a 15 year old throws a rock at an IDF soldier he winds up in an Israeli military courts system and most likely in jail.

I have a good deal of sympathy for the IDF, who, almost always shows great restraint in the face of stone throwing. They could shoot every single kid dumb enough to hurl a rock their way, I am quite glad they don’t, as teenage stupidity is a universal phenomenon and thus demands some degree of allowance. But, this point illustrates the persistent problem created by Israel’s occupation of a population that does not wish to be under Israeli rule. Israel finds itself in the unenviable position of holding the wolf by the ears - withdraw from the West Bank and quite possibly deal with groups like Hamas digging tunnels and launching rockets from the positions previously held - stay in the West Bank and be forced to spend Israeli blood governing a population that hates it.

Closing Note

I hope you have found these newsletters helpful over the past few weeks. I intend to continue them for the foreseeable future. There are several topics I would like to do a deeper dive on such as the theory of war from Hamas and other Islamist groups when it comes to Israel - particularly how the French abandonment of Algeria looms large in their thinking. As well as a deeper dive into how the United Nations and international media became so abjectly horrendous at covering Israel with any degree of credibility. But, I would also love to know what you would like to know more about. Drop me a comment below with questions you have about the conflict and I will try and answer them over the next few weeks.

Happy Hannukah to my Jewish friends - a holiday my Rabbi Jesus certainly celebrated. I continue to pray for the peace of Jerusalem and the protection of Jews everywhere from the despicable rise of Jew hatred across the world. I also pray that this war can be brought to a swift and just end. That Hamas can be defeated and the hostages rescued and a lasting peace can be made in the Middle East. Only God can make it so, so we ought to continuously make the request.

Zachary McCartney

1. It must be said that critics of the IDF’s military court system never seem to be able to offer a counterproposal to the IDF’s judicial system that would meet Israel’s security needs (preventing terrorism, protecting its troops) and potecting Palestinians civil rights. Typically they call for a 2 state solution where the Palestinian state will be magically governed by a group of western style liberals who desire peace and economic and security cooperation with Israel. A solution more fanciful than Donald Trump and Joe Biden both deciding that they really aren’t the best two cannidates for president and so for the good of the American people they will both step aside and allow for an open race for the presidency.